In recent public discourse, it has become common to hear that Nigeria’s debt has somehow “shrunk” under President Tinubu’s watch. But that narrative is dangerously misleading — it obscures the painful reality that the debt burden has not been lightened, but exacerbated by currency collapse, inflation, and reckless borrowing.
Let’s start with what the data show. As of Q2 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at approximately ₦87.38 trillion, of which 61.95 percent was domestic, and 38.05 percent external. This ratio means that most debt is owed internally, making the government extremely vulnerable to interest rate pressures and inflation.
When the naira depreciates, servicing foreign debt becomes far more expensive in local currency terms — even if the dollar figure remains constant. Reports suggest that between June 2023 and June 2024, the naira’s valuation plunged from around ₦460 to as low as ₦1,500 per dollar, dramatically inflating the naira cost of servicing external loans. In effect, even if debt principal doesn’t grow, the cost of repayment in naira effectively multiplies.
Data also show that external debt obligations are steep. In the first eight months of 2025 alone, Nigeria spent US$2.86 billion servicing external debt — roughly 69.1 percent of the country’s total foreign payments during that period. That gives a clear picture: debt service claims a huge slice of foreign exchange receipts — limiting room for imports, reserves, and capital investment.
The Commonwealth of Nigeria faces additional pressure on its internal finances. The 2024 debt service-to-revenue ratio was reported at over 111 percent for the 2023 fiscal year — meaning the government’s revenue was insufficient even before debt payments. Even more recently, in Q1 2024, analysts put the ratio at 74.3 percent — the lowest in five years — but still uncomfortably high by international fiscal standards.
Meanwhile, key economic metrics have shown strain. Inflation remains elevated (often above 30 percent), food inflation even steeper, and oil production continues below OPEC quotas, limiting foreign income. These conditions make debt repayment not just a fiscal exercise, but a socioeconomic burden.
What about claims that debt “reduced” from ₦87 trillion to ₦152 trillion in a dollar sense? That figure reverses logic — going from ₦87 trillion to ₦152 trillion is an increase, not a reduction. The illusion of “debt reduction” often comes from reporting in dollar terms without adjusting for exchange rate shifts. A debt may appear smaller in dollars if the naira collapses, but for Nigerians paying in naira, the burden has ballooned.
Let’s be crystal clear: debt has not lightened. It has deepened. Tinubu’s administration has had to confront a collapsing naira, rising inflation, weak oil revenue, and a debt service profile that crowds out capital expenditure. More worrisome, recent sovereign ratings by Fitch note that Nigeria’s external debt service is rated “moderate but expected to rise,” suggesting further strain ahead.
If there is any hope in this narrative, it lies in structural reform: raising non-oil revenue sustainably; stabilizing the naira; resetting debt policy; renegotiating unfavorable loans; and prioritizing capital investment over recurrent spending. Otherwise, Nigeria risks trading future growth for immediate survival — all while the public bears the cost in poor infrastructure, inflation, and falling real wages.
In truth, Tinubu could not have “reduced” debt — not in any meaningful, systemic sense. What he has done is deepen it — and Nigeria is left to pay the steepest price.
