As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, a palpable sense of discontent and restlessness sweeps across the country. Once touted as the master strategist capable of bending the nation’s political chessboard to his will, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu now faces an uphill — some say near-impossible — battle to secure reelection. While his supporters tout incumbency and party machinery as surefire advantages, a closer look at the raw data and street sentiments paints a grim picture for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Since taking office in May 2023, Tinubu’s administration has presided over some of the harshest economic conditions Nigerians have faced in decades. Inflation, which stood at 22.4 percent in April 2023, has continued its relentless climb, hitting 33.95 percent by May 2024 according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Food inflation has soared beyond 40 percent, pushing staple items far beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. The naira, once hovering around ₦460 per dollar at the time Tinubu took office, has collapsed to over ₦1,500 per dollar in the parallel market as of mid-2025, wiping out savings and destroying purchasing power.
The controversial removal of fuel subsidy in 2023, while economically rational on paper, was implemented without adequate safety nets for the most vulnerable. As a result, transportation costs tripled almost overnight, cascading into higher prices for goods and services nationwide. Millions of Nigerians who were already living on the edge were pushed into deeper poverty. According to the latest data, over 133 million Nigerians are now classified as multidimensionally poor, an alarming surge that has turned daily survival into a brutal struggle.
Promises of renewed hope have turned into widespread despair. Security challenges, which Tinubu vowed to tackle, have only intensified. Banditry, kidnapping, and terrorism continue to ravage the North, with states like Zamfara, Kaduna, and Niger experiencing almost daily attacks. The Southern regions, meanwhile, grapple with rising violent crime and separatist agitations. These failures have eroded trust even among traditional APC strongholds.
In 2023, Tinubu relied heavily on his South-West base and strategic alliances in the North to secure victory. However, recent political trends suggest these foundations are no longer as solid. Lagos, Tinubu’s long-assumed fortress, delivered shocking blows in the 2023 governorship and presidential elections, where Labour Party candidate Peter Obi won the state, signaling a generational and ideological shift among voters. Across the North, rising anger over insecurity and economic hardship has severely weakened the once-formidable electoral machinery. Many northern youths feel abandoned, fueling rumors of possible realignments among powerful northern elites.
Demographically, Nigeria’s young population poses another monumental challenge for Tinubu and the APC. Over 60 percent of Nigerians are under the age of 30, many of whom form the backbone of the #EndSARS generation. This group, emboldened by social media and a renewed civic consciousness, is increasingly rejecting establishment politics. They remember the killings at Lekki Toll Gate and remain deeply skeptical of politicians perceived as corrupt or disconnected from their daily realities. Their anger is not just virtual — it is beginning to translate into real-life voter mobilization and grassroots organizing.
Furthermore, the assumption that incumbency automatically guarantees victory in Nigeria has been repeatedly disproven. In 2015, President Goodluck Jonathan became the first sitting president in Nigeria’s history to lose an election, despite enjoying all the supposed advantages of power. This watershed moment proved that when voters are united by anger and hardship, no amount of state resources can hold back a determined electorate.
Adding to Tinubu’s woes is the potential for a more united opposition. In 2023, opposition votes were scattered among multiple strong candidates, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi. However, signs are emerging that the opposition is learning from past mistakes. Obi’s unexpected strong performance in 2023, despite being labeled “structureless,” demonstrated a hunger for alternatives. A coalition involving Obi, Atiku, and other disenchanted political forces could significantly alter the balance of power, especially if they capitalize on the prevailing economic and security failures.
Beyond the political chess game, the average Nigerian is simply fed up. The endless cycle of promises, dashed hopes, and worsening living conditions has bred a level of cynicism that transcends party loyalty. Many now openly question the competence and sincerity of leaders who ask for sacrifice from citizens while enjoying lavish privileges.
If the 2027 election genuinely reflects the will of the people and not marred by intimidation or manipulation, Tinubu and the APC face a daunting, if not insurmountable, task. The hunger in the land is deafening. The despair in people’s eyes cannot be hidden by glossy campaign slogans or staged rallies.
Nigeria is at a crossroads, and 2027 will not be business as usual. The odds are no longer in Tinubu’s favor. Instead, they point clearly toward a restless nation desperate for real change, not recycled slogans. With economic collapse, regional discontent, an angry youth bloc, and an awakening electorate, the stage is set for what could be the most consequential election in Nigeria’s history.
