The political landscape of Nigeria is undergoing a seismic transformation, and all signs suggest that 2027 may not just be another general election—it could mark the end of an era for the old political gladiators, particularly former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, popularly known as the Waziri of Adamawa.
In a series of deliberate and strategic moves, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has successfully neutralized some of the most vital components of Atiku’s political engine. The political grip once tightly held by the opposition in Rivers, Delta, and Akwa Ibom States—the oil-rich Southern strongholds—has been significantly weakened. Rivers, once a bastion of PDP dominance under Nyesom Wike, has been decisively flipped, as Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, continues to strengthen his alliance with Tinubu’s APC-led government.
Delta and Akwa Ibom, long considered secure PDP territories, have seen increasing fractures and internal divisions. With Tinubu’s strategic overtures and federal muscle, the political stability of these states under PDP control is now shaky. These three states contributed over 1.5 million votes to Atiku in the 2023 elections alone. The erosion of such massive electoral support zones places a significant dent in Atiku’s war chest heading into the next battle.
But the decapitation of Atiku’s strength goes beyond the South. Even in his northern base, cracks are emerging. In the 2023 election, Atiku polled 6,984,520 votes, coming second to Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes. However, much of his northern clout rested on traditional loyalty networks and ethno-religious sentiments. Today, those structures are being challenged by shifting demographics, new political movements, and growing discontent. The North is no longer politically monolithic.
Additionally, many political watchers argue that Atiku’s influence within the PDP is waning. Internal party wrangling, a fatigued support base, and his own age—he will be 80 in 2026—raise serious questions about whether he can carry the weight of a national campaign in a fast-changing country. His long political career, stretching back to 1993, is commendable. But there is growing consensus that this might be the time for him to bow out with grace.
Meanwhile, Peter Obi, the former Anambra State Governor and 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party, continues to build momentum. Though he officially finished third in 2023 with 6,101,533 votes, his campaign—largely fueled by ordinary Nigerians and young voters—was historic. It was the first time in modern Nigerian democracy that a third-force candidate galvanized such national appeal without the massive machinery of traditional party structures.
With over 70% of Nigeria’s population under the age of 35 and a tech-savvy youth increasingly disenchanted with the status quo, Obi’s appeal continues to grow. His recent grassroots mobilization efforts and strategic town hall meetings across regions signal preparation for a more organized and widespread campaign. If Obi can secure a strong running mate and build broader coalitions, many believe that 2027 could indeed be his to lose.
Moreover, the signs of Atiku’s declining clout are already evident. Several PDP chieftains have begun distancing themselves from his camp, eyeing potential alignment with newer, more dynamic forces. There is even talk of some key PDP figures endorsing Peter Obi ahead of 2027, recognizing the shifting political tide.
As the nation hurtles towards 2027, the political chessboard is being reset. Tinubu’s power plays have redrawn the map, and Atiku’s dominance is in serious question. But more importantly, the Nigerian electorate is different now—more aware, more vocal, and more demanding. The game has changed.
And in this new game, Peter Obi is emerging not just as a contender, but as a movement. Whether Atiku bows out or presses forward, the truth is stark: the future may no longer belong to the usual suspects.
