4. DANGER FROM BABANGIDA INTENSIFIES AFTER THE CLEARANCE OF JONATHAN
The go-ahead or clearance given to Jonathan by the North is a sort of mixed blessings. On one hand, ironically, in actual fact, the fact that Jonathan will emerge as the flag bearer of the PDP is good news for the South and opposition. On the other hand, it has created a lot of confusion within the political landscape of the country.
First, it is worth noting that there is some ambiguity in the resolution of Northern power brokers. In other words, what they are saying is not really clear. Are they saying that Jonathan is free as a Nigerian to contest for the election within PDP (if he wishes) as stipulated in the Constitution or are they saying that they want Jonathan to be the flag bearer of the PDP and are ready to support him against babangida, Buhari and/or any other candidate?
The confusion is compounded with the fact that Jonathan has not yet declared his intention and is yet to win the official nomination of the PDP. In any case, it’s too early for Jonathan to start rejoicing because he is yet to clinch the PDP ticket. It may not be a smooth ride for him.
However, what is certain is that even if the North have declared their support for Jonathan or are at least not against his candidacy, nevertheless, the PDP ticket will not be automatic for him. He will still have to fight or battle for it. As a matter of fact, he is already doing that.
If we are to continue our analysis along this line, then theoretically, it is more than possible that babangida, the smiling devil, might out-stage or outwit Jonathan for the PDP ticket! This scenario is more than possible. Disgruntled Northern hardliners in the PDP may betray Jonathan at the last moment and help the devil clinch the PDP nomination in order to stop Jonathan, a Southerner from becoming the president. As far as these corrupt, immoral and tribalistic Northern hardliners are concerned ‘ the devil from the North that they know – in this case babangida – is much better than a gentleman that is not from the North but the South, that you don’t know – in this case Jonathan.
Suffice to say that it is we, Southerners that loathe ibb, but not the Northerners. To them, babangida, the devil in human form, is well known, tested, predictable than Jonathan, a Southerner, moreover from the Niger Delta, the oil producing region complaining of injustice, marginalisation and fighting for resource control, who just emerged on Nigeria’s political scene.
To them (the Northerners) babangida, the smiling devil, is well known, tested, predictable and preferable than Jonathan, a Southerner, who just appeared on the political scene unexpectedly thanks to Obasanjo, his God-father from the South whose influence in tbe PDP today is very weak and is regarded by the North as their no. 1 political enemy who is held responsible for the present crises and division in the PDP and the North for purposely imposing a very sick and dying Northerner, Musa Yaradu, on the country in order to get rid of him later and be replaced by his Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, a Southerner, who is now bent on contesting for the 2011 election under the PDP which the North still regard as theirs.
The same reasoning or argument could be extended to capture Obasanjo’s political influence in Yoruba land or the S.W. his home base. Unfortunately or ironically, Obasanjo himself, single-handedly destroyed his political power base in his homeland after installing PDP governors through hook and crook methods on the Yoruba. The imposition of incompetent and corrupt and unpopular Yoruba PDP governors on the Yorubas have not in anyway boosted the popularity nor strengthen the power base of Obasanjo. After 8 years at the helms of affairs in Nigeria, Obasanjo is so unpopular among his own Yoruba people to the extent that he has no chance whatsoever of winning in any free and fair elections conducted neither in his local government, state nor any other local government or state in the South West. He is a political nonentity and informally a persona non grata in Yoruba land. Obasanjo has shot himself in the leg and reaping the fruits of his labour. Therefore, he might not be of much use or help to Jonathan in his bid to become the flag bearer of the PDP.
There is the danger that the North might want to ridicule Jonathan and the Niger Deltans in particular by pulling the carpet from his feet at the last moment by denying him the PDP ticket in favour of babangida who is the only and major contender for the PDP ticket so far. Thus, if babangida manages to defeat Jonathan through some hook or crook method and clinches the PDP ticket, then it is obvious that the probability of his winning the election is almost guaranteed. This is the first danger and the worst scenario that might occur.
The second danger that babangida might pose to the opposition is the fulfillment of a second but more likely scenario: Jonathan, after a series of battles eventually clinches the PDP ticket. In order to keep his presidential ambition alive, ibb, the smiling devil, will be compelled to contest on the platform of another party. Under this scenario, there will still be some ‘uncompromising and tribalistic’ Northerners, who lost out to Jonathan in the PDP, but instead of uniting around him to win the election, are still against his presidency and are ready to do everything to frustrate his presidential ambition. In order to realise their aim, the only thing left for these disgruntled elements to do will be to cross over to the smiling devil’s camp and will do everything in order for him to defeat Jonathan. Under such a scenario, Babangida poses less danger and is more or less like a wounded and angry lion – but if care is not taken, such a lion could cause devastating damage.
The third scenario is the emergence of another powerful Northerner within the PDP who will give ibb and Jonathan respectively a very good fight for the PDP ticket and clinch it at the last moment.
Under all the scenarios analysed above – although the probabilities of their occuring are very low, the South and the opposition would still be much better off choosing a Northerner from the core North as its flag bearer against any PDP candidate.
Therefore, in order to stop babangida, who really constitutes a serious threat to our evolving democracy, and Jonathan or any other PDP candidate that may eventually emerge and avoid political chaos – which is in their favour because it could provide a very good excuse for the North and their backers, the British and Americans, to organize a coup, the most sensible thing to do is to compromise and eat the humble pie again – as we have been doing for the past 50 years – and go along with the North on zoning and concede the presidency to them.
If we go ahead and stubbornly and blindly throw our support behind Jonathan, I am afraid to say that come 2011, we may have babangida, Buhari or a military officer, instead of a Northerner candidate from the opposition, as the president of the country. Are we ready for such a scenario?
Suffice to say again that Jonathan is a staunch member of the ruling party of bandits, the PDP, and is nothing but another visionless, incompetent, corrupt, morally bankrupt opportunist and the stooge of Obasanjo and the West, and is not worth spilling our blood or dying for!
Even if we field in Babatunde Fashola, the action governor of Lagos State, who is regarded to be the most effective administrator and governor in the history of Nigeria, I am afraid to say that based on the analysis given above, his victory is not guaranteed in the elections.
In order to weaken seriously or remove completely the power base in the North and for a Southern to win the election against a Northerner most especially from the PDP, at least 4 years of preparation and hard work are needed.
Our primary aim now is to use the North or a Northerner to be more precise to stop babangida and/or Buhari. And the only
way to achieve this is for the opposition to choose a Northern as its candidate.
In order to stop babangida and Western imperialists from having their way, we must sacrifice Jonathan who has no real power b a base. The present political game unfolding in Nigeria reminds me of chess or even draughts. Sometimes, in order to win a game, it is expedient to sacrifice some pawns or players.
MAKING THE NORTH AN OFFER THEY CAN’T REFUSE.
However, it is just not enough to choose a candidate from the North. We mustn’t choose just any candidate from the North. We must also do it wisely in order to achieve the maximum effect and guarantee the victory of our candidate. How can this be achieved? By making the North an offer they can’t refuse even if they were stupid. The selection process should be able to achieve a couple of goals. First, an alternative Northern candidate from the opposition will undoubtedly allow the North to save face after the mess that they got themselves into with Jonathan and zoning. Second and most importantly, it should weaken seriously or remove the political base of babangida. How can this be achieved. We must give the North especially the power brokers a bigger stake in the outcome of the elections. How/ By ensuring that our candidate will not just come from anywhere in the North, but from ‘the core’ North! The opposition must ensure that its candidate from the North by his ethnic origin is much closer to the core North and power brokers compared to babangida. In other words, the candidate of the opposition must be either Hausa or Fulani.
So, the first thing the opposition need to do is:
1. Choose a presidential candidate who is either Hausa or Fulani;
2. Reach out through their candidate and other Northerners to the power brokers and remind/convince them that Buhari and babangida are men of the past who don’t really have any plans or anything tangible neither for the North nor Nigeria. Most importantly, they need to reemphasize the fact that babangida is indeed a devil and if the North go ahead to elect him, we will all loose and regret our decision at the end of the day. They need to be told that choosing ibb or Buhari will be 30 years backwards for democracy – which the country needs badly for development and by so doing, we will not only be laying bad precedent and example for other African countries but will as well be the scorn of the world. ;
3. That the North has nothing to fear and their interests will be well taken care of if the opposition and a new administration that will be headed by Nuhu Ribadu comes to power is
THE BRADLEY AND/OR THE BLOOD IS THICKER THAN WATER EFFECT IN NIGERIAN ELECTION AND POLITICS.
In 1982, Tom Bradley, a Democrat, an Afro-American and long-time mayor of Los-Angeles, California, contested against George Dukemejian, an American but of Armenian origin, for the governorship of California. Armenia is a very small country with a population of about 3 million and was part of the 15 republics that made up the former Soviet Union. However, the total population of Armenians is estimated to be 8-9 million scattered mainly in the United States and Russia. Prior to the election, most polls conducted showed that Bradley was far ahead of his opponent and would win the elections easily. However, after all the results were added up, Tom Bradley lost to Deukmejian narrowly.
The ‘Bradley effect’ is a new terminology that is used by sociologists to describe the surprise and unexplainable loss of Bradley who led Deukmejian significantly in all polls conducted till election day, but was eventually defeated narrowly by his opponent. According to socialists, the main explanation or reason for Bradley’s loss could only be ascribed to the fact that most ‘light-complexioned’ Americans who previously said that they would vote for Bradley did not keep their words and eventually cast their votes for Deukmejian simply because Bradley was black and Deukmejian considered white. It’s worth noting that Armenians are not really considered to be white in Russia, but are generally referred to as Caucasians who are regarded to be non-Europeans.
Could we witness the Bradley effect in Nigerian politics especially on voting day? Based on my analysis and intuition, it is more than possible. **Despite the fact that most of the PDP governors and other senior party functionaries – especially from the North – were cajoled or compelled into declaring their support publicly for Jonathan, they could as well behind the scenes against his interests. Infact, according to reports filtering the press, they have not only already devised different clandestine tactics and strategies to ensure that Jonathan does not emerge the flag bearer of the PDP at the primaries, they have as well started implementing them. But even if at the end of the day Jonathan manages to scale all the artificial hurdles placed on his path by his own party members from the North and eventually clinches his party ticket, this does not in any way mean that he has automatically capture Aso-rock.
What we need to understand is that the PDP as a party is an attractive platform to the North as long as they control it and have influence over decision making processes. It is only a tool for the North to continue monopolising and retain power for themselves and defend their interests. The moment these privileges become unattainable anymore, the PDP immediately turns into a sort of enigma, leprosy or sinking and useless ship that must be vacated immediately.
So, when the chips are down, if Jonathan, babangida go to the polls against a Hausa/Fulani candidate, the North especially the Fulanis and the Hausa who constitute the majority and are the most influential would consider the candidate of the opposition – ironically – as their own man whom they could trust to take care of their interests much better than babangida because he is much closer ethnic-wise to them compared to babangida (talk less of Jonathan who is Ijaw and from the South) and would vote for him overwhelmingly.
TO BE CONTINUED…
YOU CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.
Send this article to at least 25 people of diversified professional backgrounds: civil rights activists, politicians, colleagues, e.t.c., discuss it either on the phone or in person with at least two people and ask them to do the same. You are free to publish it on a social networks. Go ahead right now. Don’t procrastinate or delay. Thank you.
* In order to have a complete understanding of this article/series, the reader is advised to read related articles. They are:
**. This part was added after Jonathan’s official declration and the events with surrounding the Northern governors that followed.
1. U.S meeting with Babangida, condition for terrorist’s list delisting: An affront, blackmail and treat to Nigeria’s soveringnty, democratization process and development.
2. Why Jonathan, Aganga and Allison-Madueke must be removed at any cost and by any means now!
3.Sovereignty, Economic Security, Barrack Obama’s Visit, Jonathan, 2011 Election And The Development of Nigeria: Correlation.
This article and/or series does not in any way mean that the author believes in one Nigeria or has changed his position.
For those following my series on “One Nigeria: To be or not to be?” and “How The Niger Deltans can get their freedom: The action plan!”, I regret to announce that there might not be a continuation of the series because I lost more than 80 hand-written pages (A4 format) containing 3 additional parts each of the 2 series and another series titled “Leadership, Decision Making, The North, The Military And Development In Nigeria: A System Analysis.”
I am not sure if I will have the energy, time, passion, motivation and inspiration to write another series and carry out again the comprehensive research that I did on the Nigerian oil and gas in those series. If at all I attempt to rewrite the series –
which will not be earlier than next year – they will never be like the original which were written with inspiration and passion. I have never written the same article(s) twice. In any case, I hope that my readers will bear with me and forgive. Thank you for your understanding.