Why IBB Will Win In 2011

The “Gap Toothed” General finally made public, what has been a staple of Abuja political conversation in the past few months, no surprise there, it was only a matter of time before our ever dependable elasticity was tested again. The surprise today however is not so much a guarantee of his victory, but what took him so long. I suppose having being out maneuvered by the other Hill-Top Owu commander a couple of years ago, he decided working behind the scenes wasn’t a good strategy, better come out, let it be known, thus set as quickly as possible the jockeying of Greed by the henchmen who will administer the depraved strategy.

Trying to unravel the puzzle is time wasting, as a matter of fact it’s not even a puzzle, it is as easy as understanding your own society and making a prediction based on your own complicated simple analysis. Here goes the complication? IBB gathers about 20 to 30 predictable haters of “principle over greed”, lovers of the Naira, the hope of influence, a chairmanship, a ministerial or simply put, loads of Naira, deputies who know how to navigate the sensibilities of their kin folks, the spreading of the Naira begins earnestly.

The 20 to 30 top lieutenants would head the distribution of the Naira; the distribution would naturally be the preface to a visit by the ever smiling knavish czar to most of the states, the visit has commenced with a diligence, this is not a bon mot, OGUN STATE, DOWN !, DELTA STATE DOWN ! EDO STATE DOWN! Ha Ha Ha it has begun! Once the visit has concluded and possibly simultaneously, the distribution will begin, first to local party heads, then to the local government level then to the ever ELEGANT traditional chiefs and Kings, the competition for IBB forever adverts in the newspapers will speed up.

I suppose the newspaper publishers will refuse the adverts based on principles, Yeah Whatever!
Stage 3, the sealing up of the Fake presidential primaries, this would not be so much a charade as a waste of time, but for the circus of it, it would be held, the contestants will pay the fees, only to be paid back 20 fold once they exit the stage on convention day.

Stage 4 will be the most costly, this is where election chiefs get to retire and set up their Great-Great grandchildren for life, here sirs, elections are costly, guaranteed wins however are a different matter, they come at a premium. The people (Election Officials) you shudder are not at all strangers, they are not foreigners, they are not aliens, these are Nigerians just like you, your neighbors, your fathers, your uncles, your aunties (Who can forget Dodo Ikire).
They are the very elastic look alikes, who reflect Nigerians.

You see, you can’t move faster than your society, your society is where it’s at because it’s where it wants itself. When Flight Lieutenant Jerry John R had enough, he took matters into his hands and dealt a fatal blow, that was a paradigm shift, that is just 3 countries away, now they have steady power, clean streets, much less corruption and a Nigeria to look at as a bad example, good for them,
Can you say Ghana must come!

That change wasn’t incremental, it was revolutionary.

It is quite possible that the successful revolt in Kyrgyzstan is yet another proxy battle being waged post cold war between Russia and the United States, as a matter of fact, I suspect it is.
Putting it in the context of the incoming wars (not physical) between China, Russia and the United States, it will not be conspiratorial to think in those contexts.

However simplifying it, is a disservice to hundreds that have just given their life to the successful overthrow of their government. You just have to give it to them, they kept coming and kept coming, soaked in blood and all. Until Kurmankek Bakiyev started thinking about failed dictators, he supposedly ordered the killing of innocent civilians to stop, and then fled to his village in the south of Kyrgyzstan. The people of Kyrgyzstan had enough and decided to sacrifice and proceeded to take their government from those who did not reflect them, how compelling?

The people decided to take back a government that is not representing them!
Until my brothers in the creek decided to take up arms against the people who oppressed them, no one paid them any mind. Now, It is a staple that you don’t mess with the “militants”, I hope they find cohesion. My question is how many civilians can the soldier man kill? How many civilians can the Mopol kill?

The Gap toothed Generals foray is not so much predictable erudition, but a rather simple estimation of the people he knows well. When he put corruption on steroids, they did nothing, when he manipulated their ethnicity and tribes, they fell for it, when he used the gods they know well (Naira), they strutted and marched synched to the Marshall music.

The Kyrgyz decided the sound of their music had a discord and Roza Otunbayeva led them in seeking a new tune, NOT WITHOUT SACRIFICE, NOT WITHOUT IT.

As I write, 19 people are dead in the streets of Bangkok, protesting their government; the “Red shirts” now numbering in thousands have taken over the streets, the soldiers and police have stopped using tear gas and bullets and have begun to find a way to accommodate the grievances, the pressure is on the government to start a conversation, what has obliged me on this is not so the nature of the grievance, but the audacity of the people to engage, damned the consequences, the more I inquired about the composition of the protesters, the more it became glaring that it was devoid of class or social structure.

I wish I could say that for the 3 demonstrations I have witnessed recently in the almighty FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA, It really brought a nostalgia when back when I was in secondary schools, we were all gathered in thousands during the “ALI MUST GO” DEMOSTRATIONS, Simply put, it seems NIGERIANS have been beaten up to a state of nonchalance, poverty leading to indifference, I could really count all the participants if I wanted to, they were definitely not like going to a revival or close to the crowd you will encounter of Friday after prayers.

Where were the children of beneficiaries of the shadiness? The sons of the venality going on for the past 30 years?, I guess in London driving Lexus, Mercedes and following the latest trend in fashion, I suppose better give the talent to “the abroad” need I continue.

My other observation was the lack of northerners in the demonstration, only one or two belonging to the opposition parties, not quite incredible I would say.

IBB can count on this, you see and this is why he will win, the people never counted, they don’t count now, they will never count. If they tried, religion is all too easy, tribe is all too easy.
They are, will you say, a piece of cake.

Right next door, more than 6000 Togolese have made Faure, s life a living nightmare, cause they refuse to quit the streets, compelling? Not quite, but using percentages alone that’s about .11% of the population, when was the last you say 175,000 Nigerians gathered for anything other than Owambe, ethnic cleansing, religious cleansing, tribal cleansing.

If you doubt ask the Ijebu what they think of the Egbas and vice versa, or the Igbos about the Yorubas or vice versa or the Jos “Indigenes versus “Settlers”, I rest my case. That&#8

217;s keeping it really elementary.

The youths who get information (From Nigerians) about corrupt practices and subsequently put the information out there for Nigerians to read and make up their own minds are called non patriots, are called trouble makers, are called radicals, disrespectful, are called small boys, yet when the EFCC was a respectable institution , information kept coming out in the hundreds from anonymous Nigerians seeing corrupt practices right in front of them, doing what they could to surreptitiously make a contribution. The information that needed forwarding got forwarded; those that needed publishing got published.

That’s when they had hope, they had hope, because “Ribadu” was more Good than Bad, when people criticized him, it was as if they had no understanding of his precarious position, now they do and they long for him.

“Goodluck” cannot achieve anything in the next few months, he cannot give us world respectability, he cannot give us stable electricity, he cannot give us a reliable address system, he cannot give us a reliable postal system, he cannot give us world standard health car delivery system, he cannot solve the Niger Delta problems with pay offs and another unnecessary bureaucratic institution.

Goodluck, here is what you do, you need a paradigm shift, it will be to give us a Ribadu or a Umar, Not particularly the persons, but the shift, you will not exactly be affecting the shift, but institutionalizing the group that will affect the shift, let them come in and deal a blow to the ever predictable continuity, they will then have to answer for all their sins and you get your name in GOLD . WE thought the Owu commander will do this, but he failed.

Then maybe and a big maybe, IBB (and the rest) will lose.

Written by
Charles Sogbesan
Join the discussion

  • This monkey face man has audacity, with his private jets and all the stolen money and Dele Giwa, let him try, we are waiting, we will disgrace him.

  • It will not happen in the name of allah the merciful, let him come and spend the billions he stole. Barawo !