YORUBA ROONU DADA – RE: SALIHU LUKMAN’S OPEN LETTERS TO SEN. BOLA TINUBU, MUHAMMADU BUHARI; EL-RUFAI AND NDIGBOS’ 2015 PRESIDENTIAL AGENDA (PART 2).
“Oro abo la n so fun omoluabi to ba d’enu e, a di odindi.” Yoruba proverb(Translation: A word is enough for the wise)
“Even if you fall on your face, you are still moving forward.’ Khan.
“Problems are not stop signs, they are guidelines.” Robert H. Schuller.
“God willing, by 2015, something will happen. They either conduct a free and fair election or they go a very disgraceful way.” Muhammodu Buhari. May, 2012.
“This position is for the Daddies.” Alhaji Bamaga Tukur. Excerpt of speech in a press conference before the PDP congress which eventually produced him as the National Chairman of the party.
“Academically, Nasir El-Rufai is eminently qualified to be president, but he is too small to fit into Buhari’s big shoes. There are a few similarities between General Buhari and Mallam El-Rufai; both have a firm determination to achieve their objectives; they have the bluntness to challenge authority and both in some way function with some dictatorial tendencies. What clearly sets them apart is a simple word – character.” Ross Alabo-George. Excerpt from article “El-Rufai: Too small to be president.”
“It appears there is trouble in paradise as Major General Buhari’s decision to contest the 2015 election has set him on a collision course with his new found protege, controversial minister of the FCT, Malam Nasir Elrufai. As it turns out, Buhari’s decision to contest has caused a notorious Elrufai loyalist, Salisu M. Lukman to write an open letter to Buhari discouraging him from running. Nigerians may recall that the important Northern daily, Daily Trust ran a headline on its Sunday Trust edition revealing that Malam Elrufai had set up the machineries for his 2015 run on the platform of the CPC on the belief that Buhari would keep to his word not to contest. The story released on Sunday Trust on the 1st of April 2012 with the title ‘2015 presidency: Campaign for el-Rufai begins in CPC’ quoted Alhaji Salihu as confirming the Elrufai run. Confirming this to Sunday Trust on phone on Saturday, one of the coordinators, Alhaji Isa Salihu Nataro, said the decision to set up campaign structures for the realization of el-Rufai’s presidential ambition became necessary in view of his contributions so far in the efforts to bring the country out of its numerous problems caused by poor leadership.
Excerpt of news report. June, 2012
“Prime minister Dmitry Medvedev is a well meaning yet incompetent man. His recently completed tenure as president was spent incuosly enough, tweeting, toying with high tech gadgets and listening to British rock. Yet, his four years in office have done enourmoys harm to Russia. Sometimes, incompetence can be as dangerous as ill intent. Medvedev came intooffice declaring that ‘freedom is better than no freedom’ and promising liberalization, judicial and police reform, moderniation and an end to corruption. Very little came out of that …” Alexei Bayer, New-York based economist. May, 2012. Excerpt from column titled “Medvedev’s dangerous incompetence.”
“A week after bloody clashes between radical youths and riot police tarnished the first major protest rally in months, the moderate middle-class opposition appeared to re-assert tself on Sunday with an unexpectedly large march of thousands led by some of Russia’s most prominent writers. Organizers said about 10,000 marched peacefully from Pushkin square to Chistiye Prudy where they merged with a four-day-old-open-air camp that has become the headquarters of the fledging street movement to oust president Vladmir Putin . Police put the number of marchers to 2,000. But the organizers put the figure at 10,000 . Excerpt of news report from Russia based English newspaper
SECOND TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION: WILL MALLAM NASIR EL-RUFAI EVENTUALLY OUTSMART/PLAY SENATOR BOLA AHMED TINUBU IN NIGERIA’S POLITICAL POKER GAME
PERHAPS, THE PROCESS IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE RESULT
Sir, in as much as we understand, and, undoubtedly, fully support your determination to get rid of Jonathan Badluck and the PDP for good in 2015, it’s equally important to take into full consideration all the pros and cons of whatever tactics and strategies that you and the leadership of ACN are going to use to achieve this noble goal.Therefore, I want to draw your attention to the fact that it’s not only the result that is important, but the process is even more important – especially in particular for the Yoruba and ACN as a growing party in the long run. In my humble opinion, it will make sense to heed to the Russian proverb that goes thus: “Syem raz pomeryt, adin raz otrezat.” Translation: “Do the measurement seven times, but the cutting once.” What this proverb means in essence is that one should take his time or sleep over a problem(and not rush)before taking a very important decision(consenting to something). Thus, my intention in writing this treatise is:
1. Show you that Nigeria, its politics, political land-scape are completely different from that of Senegal, and as a result deserves a different approach;
2. Draw your attention to the fact that those 3 articles purportedly written by Salisu Lukman in actual fact were written solely by Nasir El-Rufai or jointly with him (Salihu Lukman)
3. Remind you, the leadership of ACN and Yoruba that CPC and ACN and the leadership of the two parties are incompactible because they are completely different in terms of moral values, ideologies, aspirations, backgrounds, mode of operations, democratic leanings, management styles, principles etc
4. You might not have enough time to fully assess the pros and cons or implication of an alliance due to the unprecedented and unjustified pressure on you from all quarters;
5. Unknowingly, you and the leadership of ACN, might be working into a trap set for you by the North(to be precise, by Nasir El-Rufai);
6. That Tinubu, and the leadership of ACN are taking a big but absolutely unecessary political risk which will end up for him, the ACN and Yoruba in tragedy.
7. An alliance with CPC will definitely lead to instabiity and serious political crises in the S.W. and ACN might most likely end up loosing SW states again – like in 2003 during Obasanjo’s second term.
8. Despite the fact that Jonathan Badluck is another incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrut opportunist like all his predecessors, nevertheless, the fact still remains that he inherited at least 80% of the problems that he is presently facing.
9. Neither PDP, ANPP, CPC were formed by Jonathan. They were all formed by the Hausa-Fulani or Sokoto Caliphate in order to rule Nigeria forever.
10. By forming an alliance with CPC, Tinubu, in actual fact, is not only providing a platform for, but as well helping the North to return power back to the North and continue enslaving the South.
11. The fact that Tinubu and ACN are even contemplating an alliance with CPC only means that the Yoruba have not really learnt their lessons from the June 12, 1992 crises that eventually led to the murder of Moshood Abiola, the winner of the presidential elections.
12. An alliance with CPC and/or ANPP will provide a good platform and excuse for the Hausa-Fulani(the descendants of Alimi and Usman Dan Fodio) to take power forcefully from Jonathan (including coup detat) under any scenario in 2015.
13. An alliance could be viewed by the Niger Deltans and/or South-South as an attempt to intimidate Jonathan and remove him from power
14. An alliance between ACN, CPC and ANPP which have their strong hold only in ythe North with the control of 3 states in the region will automatically be perceived by the Ndigbos of the South East as a plot and coalition against their political interests, most especially presidential aspiration in 201
5 and will compel them to vote for Jonathan in 2015 out of frustration, bitterness and for vengeance;
15. Prove beyond any reasonable doubts that ACN does not only not need any alliance whatsoever in order to defeat Jonathan and PDP in 2015, but will be much better off in the long run.
16. Removing Jonathan should not be a do or die affair for the ACN. It should not be at any cost. It will definitely backfire! The long and short term effects for ACN and the Yoruba must be weighed and analysed thoroughly.
17. While it is important to vote out Jonathan in 2015, which region his successor will come from is equally important.
18. It’s neither in the interest of the ACN nor Yoruba for Jonathan to be replaced by a Northerner.
19. An alliance is a carte blanch by Tinubu and the ACN to the Hausa-Fulani to destastabilize the country. It could lead to another civil war.
20. Ironically as it may sound, it’s in the interest of the ACN for Buhari and/or Nasir El-Rufai to contest the 2015 elections.
21. CPC is a local and feather weight party(popular only in certain part of the North thanks mainly to Buhari) which is not capable of winning votes nor elections for ACN.
22. CPC does not and can not supplement ACN. CPC is a liability to the ACN.
23. El-Rufai stands most to gain from an alliance to boost/realize his presidential ambition.
24. ACN stands a very good chace of winning the 2015 elections if an Ndigbo(for example Chris Ngige) and a popular Yoruba politician(for example you, Sen Bola Tinubu; but preferrably not Mr. Babatunde Fashola) or Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo state and Sen. Chris Ngige(or any other popular Ndigbo politician) are the presidential and Vice presidential candidates respectively. This combination will erode and weaken seriously Jonathan’s base in Bayelsa state and the South South and Sout-East regions as a whole and give ACN much more votes than a useless and senseless alliance with Hausa-Fulani’s CPC and ANPP respectively.
25. The key to ACN winning the 2015 elections is not an alliance or merger neither with CPC nor any other party but choosing the right candidates to represent the party,getting a strong and convincing message across to the electorates through a well co-ordinated campaign and last, but not the least, ensuring that Nigerians in diaspora who are more than a million are registered so that they could participate in the 2015 elections .
26. If for any reason whatsoever ACN fails to win the 2015 elections, although it will be very painful, however, it still has a very good chance in 2019, unlike Buhari-El-Rufai’s CPC, which is a dying party that will only bring more problems.
27. In general, all things being equal, in the long run, it’s in the interest of ACN and Yoruba for power to remain in the South – but not with Jonathan Badluck, in order to carry out the necessary political and Constitutional reforms which the North are presently fiercely opposing.
28. If the North gets power back, there will NEVER be any Sovereign National Conference, Federalism/regionalism nor Development Agenda for Western Nigeria (DAWN )because they are against it(since they believe that it does not favour them). Therefore, we have to say bye bye to them FOREVER!
29. An alliance between ACN and CPC will be AUTOMATICALLY be interpreted by our brothers in the South South and South East as a ‘gang-up’ against them by the Yoruba and Hausa. This will back fire because it will force them to embrace Jonathan Badluck and subsequently reduces to zero the probability/possibility of ACN expanding into those regions where it has a very good chance of winning more states, house of representatives and Senatorial seats compared to CPC and ANPP respectively which are considered in those regions as Northern parties.
30. Since the popularity of CPC mainly depends on, and is directly related to Buhari’s personality, therefore, the value of an alliance or merger becomes practically worthless if Muhammodu Buhari for one reason or the other eventually does not become the flag bearer or/and ceases to take active part in politics (for example due to old age) since the popularity of CPC is directly related to his personality.
31. Neither Muhammodu Buhari, Nasir El-Rufai could be trusted to abide by agreements reached. They are unreliable, untrustworthy and will definitely renege on whatever pledge made in order to satisfy their selfish political/presidential ambition. An alliance makes sense to them if only on the condition that Muhammodu Buhari, Nasir El-Rufai or Lamido Sanusi of the CPC is the presidential flag bearer.
32. Nasir El-Rufai and Lamido Sanusi will do everything possible (legally, illegally, morally and imorally) to wrestle control of a new party from you (Senator Bola Tinubu) even before Buhari becomes inactive.
33. An alliance with CPC will also force Segun Mimiko of Ondo state to campaign openly for the PDP and jonathan badluck and call on Ondo people to vote for jonathan.
34.ACN is already a brand which millions of Nigerians(especially Yoruba) are proud to identify with and is yet to reach its peak. The party has only realised about 35-40% of its potential. The leadership of the party needs 4-12 years more to realise about 80% of the party’s potential. Therefore, forming an alliance or merging with another party now(especially CPC) will not only confuse millions of admirers of ACN, but most importantly, will as well devalue significantly and eventually kill this promising brand. And you will have to start afresh again and plunge enourmous amount of resources, time and energy into building a new one but will never be like ACN’s previous brand.
35. Getting rid of Jonathan Badluck and the PDP are not exactly the same – as it may seem at a first glance. There is some difference. It will be wise of ACN to take its analysis farther than 2015.
36. The political situation and atmosphere that might theoretically warrant and justify an alliance between ACN and CPC before the 2011 presidential elections have completely changed within a year and makes an alliance unnecessary and unprofitable now for ACN.
37. Buhari has little or nothing to offer Nigeria.
38. Buhari is a tribalist.
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