FREEDOM COALITION: $250M FUND TO ELECT MAJ (RTD)UMAR (RIBADU) AND AKUNYILI(?) IN 2011, GET RID OF THE CABAL+ LED BY BABANGIDA FOR GOOD! (Part 2)
“Furious activity is no substitute for understanding.” H.H. Williams.
“Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong.” Peter Melntyre.
“Lack of money is not an obstacle. Lack of idea is an obstacle.” Hen Hakuta.
“Ba mi na omo mi, ko denu olomo.” Yoruba proverb.
“If I refuse to take part in the election, then I am afraid to say that I will be misunderstood by the Belarussian people. They would have interpreted it as a sort of cowardeness on my part. In anycase, I have no choice but take part in the election. If I loss, I loss. If I win, I win.”
Aleksandr Lukashenko. Belarussian Strong Man regarded in the West as the last dictator in Europe. (Belarussia was one of the 15 republics that made up the former Soviet Union)
“Nigerian politics defies and debunks the evolutionary model. In the 1960s, men of towering intellectual or ethical capital – notably, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo and Aminu Kano – dominated the Nigerian political scene. Today, men who were dismissed from the police force, convicted for petty theft in Nigeria and abroad, or flaunt questionable academic credentials, routinely smuggle themselves into high political offices. In the 1960s, the political parties still understood the meaning of party manifestoes and programs. On the stump, candidates for political offices could be expected to speak not about their programs but also to articulate the nature of ideological differences between themselves and their opponents. Today, any ignoramus can run for office. Manifesto is a word now used exclusively by mugus who don’t understand that the import of political office is to cart away millions in security votes, fraudulent contracts, constituency allowances, and sundry bribes.” Okey Ndibe. Excerpt from article ‘Apology to Soyinka.’ July, 2010.
“it is up to Jega to decide. For me it is better to amend the constitution to postpone the handover date to ensure that the adequate money, appropriate staff, communications infrastructure and trained monitoring personnel are on ground with an accurate voters register – thus leading to clean elections than rushing and repeating 2003 or 2007. I do not like the guys in the National Assembly and many in the executive and wish they would leave tomorrow…but I am prepared to grudgingly live with them for a few more months if that will give Nigerians a chance to vote all the criminals amongst them out in clean and credible elections. You need time, money and people to do these things, and my assessment is that Jega has none in enough quantities. But it is up to him. If former president Olusegun Obasanjo had asked me to do the job I did in Abuja over four years, without resources with all the staff I inherited in MFCT in 2003 and without any flexibility to hire and fire staff, deploy IT infrastructure in time, but to do the job in one year – I would have declined his ministerial offer and gone back to my consulting business. I am not close to Jonathan and have made it clear that I will not be part of his administration. I do not advise him or speak to him on his job. I feel affronted that at my age, experience and achievements in this life, any one would think that there exists any human that can tell me what to think, say or do.”
Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, Former minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Excerpt of speech at a conference organised by Change Nigeria Project and the Save Nigeria Group. July, 2010.
“The ranks of ex-militants appeared to be divided over the support for President Goodluck Jonathan to contest the 2011 presidential election. In recent weeks, there had been several meetings among stakeholders of the South-South geopolitical zone in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, to drum up support for President Jonathan and reach out to other ethnic zones. But several attempts at integrating top ex-militants into the “Jonathan for Presidency” campaign had been unyielding, causing disaffection between the militants and the pro-Jonathan campaigners. Nigerian Tribune gathered that some ex-militants were not sure that the Jonathan presidency would bring major changes to the Niger Delta and had, instead, backed those calling for Jonathan to preside over a credible 2011 general election. It was learnt that the militants were not happy with the way some South-South leaders were going about the campaign, instead of attracting developmental projects to the region. Those opposed to the ambition of Jonathan were of the view that the president should rather preside over a credible poll without contesting the election and assume a statesman status in Nigeria and abroad.One of the militants, simply called Cutlass, in an interview, expressed dismay that the vision of the late President Umaru Yar’Adua on the Niger Delta were not being implemented by the Jonathan administration, regretting that since his assumption of office, the president had yet to make any major pronouncement on the Niger Delta.”
Excerpt of news report. July, 2010.
THE BABANGIDA-JONATHAN DILEMMA.
At the present moment, officially, only one candidate, babangida, the devil in human form, though yet to be registered, has declared boldly his intention to contest for the 2011 presidential election. Badluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s incumbent president, although yet to make his intention known officially, however, based on his body movements, pronouncements and actions, one can rightly conclude that there is a very high probability that the hat-loving Ijaw man does not intend to go into political oblivion after 2011 and will be contesting too. More so, the probability of his contesting is even much higher now after getting a clearance or the ‘green light’ from the North at the end of their meeting that just took place in Kaduna in the middle of this month.
All things being equal, if a free and fair election were to be held today in Nigeria, ibb will most likely loose simply because I just can’t imagine any normal Nigerian voting for the devil after all Nigeria and Nigerians went through during his 8 year of terror as the country’s Head of State and later a military-civilian president – except ofcourse evil-minded creatures like him. Afterall, birds of the same feather fly together.
But does this fact mean that we have nothing to worry about,and should therefore just sit on the fence and allow events to unfold and take their natural course? Definitely NO! Doing so will tantamount to suicide. Undoubtedly, babangida, even out of Aso-rock and without any official power/authority STILL constitutes a serious threat not only to democracy, but as well undermines our well-being, existence, the development, sovereignty of Nigeria and the lives of Nigerians. As the saying goes in Russia ‘ A dead police is a good police.’ I have always believed that a good babangida is undoubtedly a dead and cremated babangida! This is no exaggeration but nothing but the truth.
As a matter of fact, if I were to be completely honest, the above statement or assertion that ibb will loose flatly in a free and fair election is NOT completely true and is somehow misleading. Why? Whether babangida will loose or win depend on a number of factors which include:
1. Since Ibb is the no.1 agent of the C.I.A. in Nigeria and has the backing of both the C.I.A. and Western imperialists, they may bring him to power through any hook or crook method. There is a lot at stake for them in Nigeria. They just can not afford to loose the election.
2. ibb has not limited his desire to CONQUER Aso rock only to announcements and talks. He is really working VERY HARD and ROUND THE CLOCK to realise his evil ambition. babangida is touring Nigeria, meeting, bribing and cutting deals with the movers and shakers in Nigerian politcis and anybody that he feels matters: corrupt, heartless and mo
rally bankrupt Judases who are more than ready to sell even their own mothers, serve the devil and carry out any of his orders as long as they get paid for it;
3. ibb has more than enough of his own money, which is very crucial in running a successful election, looted from Nigerian treasury. And if at all he runs out of money, which is unlikely ofcourse, the Americans will bail him out;
4. There is no serious (organized) opposition to babangida’s presidential ambition in the entire North! The North in general especially the so called power brokers or/and the Kaduna mafia, if one really exists, are not against him.
5. Most of Nigerian electorates especially Northerners who constitute a substantial proportion of Nigerian electorates will vote for babangida if asked to do so because they are still impoverished and politically unenlightened;
6. He might bribe Jega – why not – to declare him the winner
7. At the end of the day, for one reason or the other, Jonathan might decide not to contest;
8. Theoretically, it is possible that ibb might upstage Jonathan for the PDP ticket. Under such a scenario, his chances of occupying Aso rock withot any mago mago will increase;
9. If no other serious alternative candidate comes out from the North to contest against ibb and Jonathan, the North might eventually embrace ibb and vote for him in order to spite the South especially the Niger Deltans and stop Jonathan because they believe that they still have 4 more years to serve after Obasanjo’s disastrous 8 years.
Out of the above reasons or factors given above, the most serious and which may prove decisive is the last point. babangida, being a very smart crook, is very much aware of this and is as well capitalising on it.
If this state of political vacuum continues for long without any concrete and firm decision and measure to check-mate both ibb and Jonathan, there is an imminent danger that the power brokers in the North may eventually, finally and irreversibly throw all their weight behind ibb-the devil without looking back again – in order to stop Jonathan, a Southerner from winning the election. If this scenario is allowed to materialize, when the opposition eventually comes up with a candidate, it may just be too late and too little because he might not get the endorsement of the power brokers in the north which is very crucial in this very election simply because they have already made up their mind and given their words to babangida, the devil.
Furthermore, time may just not be on the side of an opposition candidate in order to tour the country, pass over his message, convince his electorates and conduct a good and befitting campaign in general which will enable him to catch up with ibb and Jonathan in popularity and rating. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT WE NEED TO FEAR MOST AND DO EVERYTHING POSSIBLE SO THAT IT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE.
So, again technically speaking, if care is not taken, ibb might even occupy Aso rock in a free and fair election. In that case, we have ourselves to blame and not the devil nor his Western backers because according to a Yoruba proverb ‘Ogun a wi tele ki n pa abuke.’ Translation, a hunched back man is not supposed to die in a war that the starting date has been announced before hand. Bearing in mind the fact that he is handicapped, if he values his life, certainly, he has more than enough time to transport himself far away from the war zone. In a nutshell, ‘To be fore-warned is to be fore-armed!’
GAME THEORY IN THE 2011 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
Politics, as they say, is a game. Some people even say that it is damn dirty game. Perhaps, the dirty part is pecuilar mainly to Nigeria and other developing African countries where politicians regard politics as a very easy avenue to self-enrichment rather than a golden opportunity to serve the people, give back to the society, uplift the country in general +and leave a legacy – that their children, grand grand grandchildren will be proud of.
What is game theory by the way and what has this theory got to do with our topic? Game theory had once been mentioned in my series ‘How the Niger Deltans get their freedom: The action plan!”
Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics but with elements of psychology, philosophy, sociology. Game theory studies how players make optimal decisions or choice using applied mathematical methods in order to emerge the winner in a competition or com+petitive game. Game theory is different from pure mathematics in the sense that it also takes into consideration the social aspect, especially rationality for human behaviour, logic, moral values, priorities, ego and the desire to survive in different conditions.
But Game Theory is interesting and complicated at the same time in the sense that while a player tries to choose the best strategy that will yield the optimal result or outcome for him, he can not act unilaterally or take decisions in vacuum. His choice, decision or the strategy that he adopts in most cases depend on his perception of what he thinks other players are most likely to do too in order to win in a competition. It has a wide application in management, economics, engineering, political science, international relations and other areas of social sciences.
However, Game theory is different from the typical entertainment game of chess, football, basketball, e.t.c. where all players or sides have equal amount/number of resources(players) and are bound by certain rules and regulations and get punished for violating them.
In real life competition, players access to resources are unequal. In Game theory, in order for a player to emerge the winner, the key, is to be able to guess, predict before hand the probability of a player taking a particular decision or line of action. In the real world, some time, this may need some espionage(that’s one of the major methods used by the Americans) or/and good ability to gather necessary information and analytic skills. For those with good background in mathematics and want to have a comprehensive understanding of this theory, a classic book on Game theory is recommended: ‘Theory of Games and Economic behaviour’ written in 1944 by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern. Neumann, a Hungarian genius of Jewish background, whose ancestors migrated from Russia to Hungary would later move to the United States to work for The RAND CORPORATION, a U.S. think thank funded by the C.I.A. and the American government respectively.
THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA: CONFESS(CO-OPERATE) OR NOT CONFESS?
One of the fundamental applications of Game theory is the popular Prisoner’s Dilemma which was first introduced by Axelrod and ‘The free rider. However, in this article, only the Prisoner’s dilemma will +be examined. What is the Prisoner’s Dilemma about? In a lay man’s language, the Prisoner’s dilemma is about a dilemma faced by 2 players when it is obvious that co-operating will be in their interests – maximise the outcome for both, nevertheless each was tempted to defect ( or not co-operate in order to maximize his own gain or outcome of an event but at the expense of his partner. The prisoner’s dilemma is a non-zero game in the sense that players either gain or loose for co-operating or not co-operating. The accumulative result of the outcome of the prisoners’s dilemma is not equal to zero. It’s about a dilemma faced by 2 prisoners as regards to what optimal choice or decision to make when they found themselves in a very unpleasant situation.
For a better understanding, an example is needed. Supposing 2 people were cut for committing a very serious crime – let’s say day light armed robbery of a bank(this is very common in Nigeria) Unfortunately for them, they were caught by the police while in action. But the police didn’t have water-proof evidence to prosecute these robbers. They both claimed that it was a misunderstanding and big mistake on the part of the police to have arrested them because they were clients of the bank and were at
the bank to carry out an important transaction. But the Police badly needed evidedence to jail them. But it can only be provided by the robbers themselves – only if they choose to.
So what did the police do in order to secure evidence from the robbers? They played some smart game on the accused. The 2 prisoners were placed in 2 seperate cells and each one of them was made the following proposal:
1. If you prisoner A(prisoner B) confesses to committing this crime and provide us with evidence to prosecute your accomplince prisoner B(prisoner A) then you will be set free while he, prisoner B (prisoner A) gets 15 years but on the condition that he, prisoner B (prisoner A) remains silent;
2. If both of you confess, you both get 10 years each;
3. If both of you keep quiet, you will be jailed for just a year each.
Now if you think that the solution to this puzzle is very easy to solve, then please imagine that you are in the position of one of the 2 prisoners, what will be your decision? Give reason(s) to justify your decision.
If you decide to be a good guy to your friend in crime and decide to co-operate by keeping quiet with the hope that he will at least be reasonable enough like you and do the same. In that case, you are really taking a big risk. You might be setting up your self for a long jail term. What if the other guy is not bothered about moral values like you, and instead decides to confess and sacrificve you? In that case, he goes scott free while you spend the next 15 years of your life behind bars just for being faithful – or would it be right to say for being foolish. It all depends on from which angle you are looking at it. So, there is really a very big danger and risk in you co-operating. The other guy may not appreciate it and fail to reciprocate.
But if you decide to save your neck by confessing and let your friend pay for your crime, you are not really that much better off too. What if your friend too decides to save his own neck too at your expense and confesses hoping that you will be a gentleman and keep quiet giving him the chance to work free. At the end of the day, you both discovered that you have given more than enough evidence for the 2 of you to be jailed for 5 years each. As you can witness, the puzzle in the Prisoner’s dilemma is that your friend in a seperate cell is thinking/reasoning just the way you do too.
Ofcourse, the best option for both of you would have been to co-operate with each other by keeping quiet, however, the problem here is that even if you want to co-operate by keeping quiet, you can’t be sure that your friend in crime will have the same moral value and incentive to act similarly. At the end of the day, instead of getting a year jail sentence each, you are both most likely to spend the next 10 years of your lives in prison. This is where the issue of moral and principle come in. Some scientists believe that the Prisoner’s solution has no solution. The Nash-equilbrium first introduced by John Nash is an element of the Prisoner’s dilemma in which Nash tried to work out a strategy or choice that will bring the maximum value for each player and will not be in the interests of any player not to co-operate. Nash was awarded the Nobel Laureate in Economics for this great contribution. Fortunately, our dilemma seem to have a solution. But it will be presented later.
THE PRISONER’S DILEMMA IN THE 2011 ELECTION.
Before we go into the analysis of the Jonathan-babangida dilemma, first, we need to identify the major players in the game: the 2011 election. Afterall, there can’t be a game without players. Moreover, in order for a player to choose or devise the best strategy or line of action, he must at least know the major players who are up against him in a competition. Knowing the players as well include having a knowledge of the resources at their disposal, the probability of their forming a coalition and taking a given line of action.
So who are the major players in the 2011 election? Perhaps you might want to test your knowledge of Nigerian politics again by naming the players before getting acquainted with my own list.
The major playerrs are:
1. babangida, the devil in human form. Certainly, the devil doesn’t need any further introduction. We already know more than enough about him;
2. Badluck Jonathan – the incumbent president who emerged the leader of the country after the demise of his boss, Tuwo Yaradua;
3. The Arewa Consultative group, Northern elders, emirs and religious groups;
But there is another major player whom I have purposely decided to leave out. Do you want to make a try and name him, and state your reason for your answer. We will compare notes again.
The fourth and invinsible (perhaps no more invinsible) major player in Nigerian politics and in the upcoming 2011 election are the IMPERIAL WEST! Yes, the Americans, British, French – OUR BEST FRIENDS! How could you have forgotten about the best friends of Nigeria?! (never mind this remark if you got the answer right)
Those extraordinary good friends of us who enslaved and colonised us for 500 years!
Those gorgeous friends of us who chained uncountable number of Africans to the ships and transported them across the Atlantic under inhuman conditions to work in the plantations for free.
Those wonderful friends of ours who are hiding information about the true amount of oil lifted in the Niger Delta from the Nigerian government.
Those loving friends of ours who have dominated practically all sectors of our economy especially the oil and gas sector.
Those marvellous Americans, British and French who have deviced different sophisticated schemes including offshore taxation to deny the Nigerian government taxes running into billions of dollars.
Those fantastic friends of ours who are helping Nigerian and African politicians and retired-criminal keep their loots running into hundreds of billions of dollars in their respective banks.
Those sensitive friends of ours who threatened Nigeria with sanctions when Yaradua said that there was a possibility that Nigeria might review and/or renegotiate its oil deals with multinational oil companies immediately on getting to power.
Those good Western Samaritan friend of ours who are milking us dry through lopsided oil agreement that has been in place since oil was discovered in Nigeria.
Those precious Western friends of ours who have been polluting the Niger Delta for decades and have virtually turned the region into an ecological disaster zone without any repercussion.
Those caring Western friends of ours who murdered our kings, ransacked their palaces, carted away uncountable and priceless artefacts to Europe and America and are still keeping them there till date.
Those charismatic friends of ours who have been ignoring all our calls/appeals to return artefacts stolen from Nigeria.
Those gifted friends of ours who have planned many coup-detats in Nigerria and Africa as a whole and executed many African leaders.
Our noble friends are more than interested in the outcome of the election because they need another puppet and weak president who will maintain the status-quo: allowing them (Western imperialists) to continue exploiting us, sabotaging all our efforts to build a true democracy, develop, be economically independent and live a dignified life in general.
Before, they used to operate behind the curtains. However, recently, perhaps due to the fact that they are more than aware of the fact that Nigeria is a failed state, the biggest banana republic in the world ruled by incompetent, corrupt, visionless and morally bankrupt opportunists and traitors right since independence, they have become so bold and confident now to the extent that they now operate openly without any mask and fear whatsoever. Afterall, to them, Nigeria is like a dog that can only bark but not capable of biting. Who on earth will fear or even take serious
ly such a dog? You won’t too. Would you?
Two closed door meetings with Jonathan and babangida by Robbin Sanders and Johnnie Carson, both senior agents of the C.I.A., but camouflagging as U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and Secretary of States for Africa matters respectively right in Nigeria immediately after the swearing in ceremony of Jonathan is a good testimony to the above assertion. It’s just impossible to imagine such an ugly event taking place in Cuba or Belorussia with population of …….and …. respectively.
Obama’s planned visit, which will most likely take place in October as part of the commemoration of 50 years of disaster, tragedy, pain, sorrow, untimely deaths, neocolonialism/imperialism, poverty, economic and political dependence, absence of focus, e.t.c. in Nigeria by the Federal government will be a culmination of the plot by Western imperialists to install new generations of puppets on the country and the citizens for another 50 years!
TO PLAY OR NOT TO PLAY: THE FIFTH UNDECISIVE PLAYER.
In actual fact, there is – or would it be better to say that there is supposed to be a fifth and last player in the 2011 elections, however, they have been so passive and disorganized to the extent that it would be more appropriate to refer to them as ‘potential players’ or even better ‘observers’ – at least for now.
It is very unfortunate and disappointing that since ibb-the devil made his intention as regards to the 2011 elections known more than 2 months ago, there has not been any concerted efforts on the part of the opposition to demonstrate that they could even be considered as a real force to be reckoned with talkless of giving a serious challenge to the duo of ibb-trhe devil and Jonathan respectively.
The impression one has is that the opposition has been run over and intimidated by babangida-the devil and Jonathan’s political machineries and have since disbanded and gone into hiding since ibb declared his presidential ambition. One can as well interprete the unbefitting silence and passiveness of the opposition to mean that they have been run over by ibb and Jonathan’s machineries and have henceforth surrendered, accepted defeat and don’t intend to spoil the good chance of Jonathan, a Southerner, capturing Aso rock.