Throughout history, to a large extent, revolutionaries are mercurial, fringe, self-opinionated people, who believe that they are avatars, with a mission to destroy the existing order and usher in a new dawn. Among these individuals, some were genuine and knowledgeable, for example, Abraham Lincoln, Lenin, Karl Marx, Mao, Fidel Castro, Ho Chi Minh, Ernesto Che Guevara, Patrice Lumumba, Gamel Abdul Nasser, Sekou Toure, Didan Kemati, Jomo Kenyatta, Augustino Neto, Nelson Mandela and others.
Revolutions come about when massive discontent, social dislocation and agonizing social conditions become intolerable. This type of revolution occurred in France, America, Russia, China and in some African nations.
In the course of human history, ideological differences led to export of terrorism and revolution. Some states decided to impose their sysyems of governance on other states, without a serious consideration as to their suitability, in terms of their cultural, religious and state philosophical beliefs. Such ideological impositions have had serious consequences in the last fifty years, world-wide. It led to the Vietnam War, the Korean war, the war in Afghanistan, to mention a few.
Contrary to the strict provisions of the United Nations Charter, prohibiting intervention in the internal affairs of other states, a new phenomenon of aiding and abetting rebellion became common-place in world geo-politics.
Revolutions directed at age-long oppression, human degradation, powerful, autocratic and dynastic strongholds, were called “THE Arab Spring”, a misnomer and debatable assertion, which romanticized the reality of the regional upheaval of historic proportions in the Middle East.
When one reviews the terrible events that happened in the Middle East and North Africa, in the last two years, it is obvious that revolutions have been overtaken by new revolutionary movements.
In Libya, things are not quite advancing. In Yemen, Egypt and Tunisia, new revolutionary tendencies, which defy analysis, have emerged. It is not quite clear what has changed after the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa. Perhaps, we are yet to wait for results. Imposition of Western democratic systems may be based on good intentions, but without preparing the nations to accept or reject the alien contraption precipitates a culture of resistance.
Very often, the West tries to support leaders they think they can do business with, without reckoning with other dissident factions in the state. As a result, even where there is a semblance of “victory”, a backlash often follows, as we have witnessed in the case of Libya, Iraq and when the Americans pull out of Afghanistan, new revolutionary forces may contend with the Taliban. Revolutions do overtake revolutions. In Russia, Lenin was assassinated by the new revolutionary movement that opposed the Bolshevik Party. In Georgia, new revolutionary forces have overthrown the organized movement of Shakasvili. In the Ukraine, the Timoshenko revolution has been overpowered.
Why Hugo Chavez revolution has succeeded is because there is an ideological dimension and the changes were populist. The revolution in North Korea is also grounded in the Kim il Sung world-view. IN ORDER TO SUCCEED, A REVOLUTION MUST COME FROM WITHIN AND NOT FROM BENEVOLENT INTERLOPERS.
When the Bath Socialist Party proposed Marxist, socialist strategies to effect changes in the Middle East, the Movement was opposed by royalist, who feared that they would lose power and privileges. After a very long spell, disaffection, oppression and frustration led to revolt against the ruling monarchies in the Middle East. In Eygpt, that which was not expected by the West happened in that the Muslim Brotherhood
is now in power.
In Iraq, what was not intended happened .Iraq moved closer to Iran.When the Bhutto movement caused the General to flee, revolutionaries caused her death. Ho Chi Ming used revolutionary hard measures to unite
Vietnam and because that was what the propel wanted, United Vietnam has been stable.
To impose a foreign way of life on ancient regimes is like pouring water on the back of a duck. As Libya is discovering, it is easier to revolt that to build. Exactly a year ago, Murmar Kaddafi, was killed in circumstances of utmost brutality by an unholy alliance of rebels, political malcontents and foreign powers.
A year later, Libya is disorganized, destroyed, buried in ruins, with little hope of recovery. In spite of the declarations by foreign interests, which permitted hopes that Libya would become a stable democracy, Libya is neither stable nor democratic. The ruins of Carthage can be seen in Libya. During the Libyan crisis, there was a stampede to recognize the “new government “of Libya. One year later, we have had all sorts of Leaders, none of which is acceptable to the revolutionaries. In an article entitled, “ A Hurried Diplomatic Eagerness or A Flawed Diplomatic Response”, I had argued that , his governance style and arrogance notwithstanding, the destruction of Libya, went too far.
With the benefit of hind-sight, the premature recognition was both hurried and flawed. Since Kaddafi was killed, the Tuaregs, who depended on Kaddafi’s pan-African disposition invaded Mali and caused a coup to take place in Mali. Now, ECOWAS states that cannot govern effectively as a result of lack of funds are being told to go on a wild goose chase after Tuaregs in the harsh desert region!!! Who will pay, for what and for how long? It is African blood that will be spilled again in the arid desert.
The pro-Kaddafi faction is making Libya ungovernable. The Benghazi Libyans are not co-operating with the Tripoli government.
The Russians and the Chinese are using the violation of the “no fly zone” UN directive as a reason for their non-co-operation in discussions on Syria.
There are both heavy and light weapons in wrong hands and passionate appeals for these weapons to be surrendered have not been listened to. Like Kosovo, Libyan bombed- out homes are hanging cliffs.
If it were in the United States, the hurried, premature recognition of Libya and the attendant consequences would have been an electoral debate issue. It will be one day, because our Nigerian citizens are languishing in Libyan jails. I have not seen a hurried eagerness to advocate for their release. What a diplomatic faux pas?
Revolutions do overtake revolutions. All man-made gods have severe limitations, both in their capacity to reason with Godly purity and with good conscience. They will remain Earth-bound, with soiled historical
remembrances. Who wants to be President?
To those Sons and Daughters of God who are given to understand the nothingness in political power, do have more serious concerns. We are watching, we are waiting for the dawning of that glorious day, when our Saviour and his Saints, will come down in bright array.