For years, oil marketers in Nigeria thrived on fuel price hikes, artificial scarcity, and cartel-like control over the downstream petroleum sector. But now that petrol prices are dropping, they are suddenly in panic mode. Their complaint? “Our businesses are threatened!” The irony is breathtaking.
What triggered this sudden fear among oil marketers? The Dangote Refinery. Since it began production in January 2024, the 650,000-barrel-per-day facility has started reshaping Nigeria’s fuel supply chain. By February 2025, Dangote Refinery began releasing millions of liters of locally refined petrol into the market, drastically reducing dependence on imported fuel—the same importation racket that marketers used to justify endless price hikes.
Before now, Nigeria imported over 90% of its refined petroleum products, exposing local prices to fluctuations in global oil prices, forex rates, and shipping costs. The narrative was always the same: “We are forced to sell at high prices because the dollar is high.” But with Dangote Refinery sourcing crude oil in naira and reducing the need for forex, that excuse is collapsing fast.
This is why marketers are desperate for intervention. They benefited massively from price inflation when fuel was ₦800–₦1200 per liter in 2023. Now that prices are gradually dropping—some stations in Lagos are already selling at ₦580 per liter—they want regulators to step in and stop the decline.
Let’s put things into perspective:
- In July 2023, petrol prices soared to ₦617 per liter, a 230% increase from ₦185 per liter before subsidy removal.
- By December 2023, some areas experienced prices as high as ₦1,250 per liter due to forex volatility and import costs.
- With Dangote Refinery entering the market, February 2025 saw prices falling to ₦580–₦630 per liter, with more reductions expected.
So what are oil marketers really afraid of? Competition. If Dangote’s locally refined petrol floods the market at competitive prices, it will break the monopoly held by fuel importers and depot owners who have long manipulated supply and prices for profit.
This isn’t about “protecting the industry” or “ensuring stability.” It’s about protecting decades of exploitation. When Nigerians were paying ₦1, 200 per liter, there was no outcry. But now that market forces are finally working in favor of consumers, they want regulators to intervene? Where was this concern when ordinary Nigerians were struggling under the weight of outrageous fuel costs?
Nigeria remains Africa’s largest oil producer, yet it has spent over $19.5 billion importing fuel in the last three years. Meanwhile, countries like Algeria, Angola, and Libya enjoy fuel prices as low as ₦300 per liter because their governments prioritize local refining over importation cartels.
If market forces were good enough to justify price hikes, then they should be good enough to justify price drops. Nigerians must not allow profiteers to hijack the system again. The era of monopoly, importation scams, and artificial scarcity must end. If oil marketers can’t survive in a competitive market, they should either adapt—or step aside.